THE OUTSIDER IN THE COLD: HOW PM RUSSELL DLAMINI LOST THE POLITICAL PULSE

Week after week, Prime Minister Russell Dlamini becomes a focal point of public discourse, whether in digital forums, casual conversations among friends discussing soccer or upcoming events, or even families planning around the ploughing season.

His name inevitably surfaces, not for admiration or normal discussions concerning politicians but as a symbol of widespread discontent. Dlamini’s leadership has managed to disappoint not only the general public but also his closest allies, presumably leaving even his Cabinet colleagues ashamed to call him their leader.

From his ill advised attendance of workers' day in May this year – ignoring the historically known political temperature of such events— where he was forced to unceremoniously leave as workers threw all sorts of objects at him – to his unprovoked and ill-conceived attack on the Auditor General's office—dismissing it as incompetent in response to audit queries during his tenure at the National Disaster Management Agency (NDMA)—to his baseless criticism of the media, particularly his targeting of The Times of Eswatini, the Prime Minister has repeatedly undermined key democratic institutions. His recent "fight" with parliament has all but confirmed his untenable position in eSwatini politics. 

The Prime Minister comes across as having a combative demeanour, as captured in conversations concerning both the media and Parliament, reached a climax with his recent outburst in the House, where he admonished MPs to "research and not incite the public."

This outburst enraged the legislature, prompting Lobamba Lomdzala MP Marwick Khumalo to question his authority in dictating their conduct or way of engagement, echoing The Nation magazine's editor Bheki Makhubu's famous rebuke: "Who the hell do you think you are?"

These actions paint a troubling picture of a leader increasingly out of touch with the political pulse of the country. The prospect of four more years under Prime Minister Russell Dlamini is deeply unsettling for those invested in the nation’s development and progress. The imagination of having him as the country’s Prime Minister until 2028 is increasingly getting scary.

It is essential, though, to explore the concrete factors—both subjective and objective—that we believe will contribute to the downfall of Russell Dlamini’s nascent political career, ultimately leading to his collapse into permanent irrelevance. But before we dissect these factors, we must first understand who Russell Dlamini is, his worldview, and the path that led him to the office of Prime Minister.

THE MAKING OF RUSSELL AND BAPTISM OF SWAZI POLITICAL FIRE

Allegedly recommended by Princess Sikhanyiso and supported by Prince Lonkhokhelo, Russell Dlamini was appointed Prime Minister on November 3, 2023, by His Majesty King Mswati III. His selection came at the close of the national Sibaya—the country’s highest policy and advisory council (Libandla), as defined by Section 232 (1) of the Constitution—after public submissions laid bare widespread frustrations over poverty, unemployment, failing health and education systems, and rampant corruption.

When His Majesty the King announced Russell Dlamini as Prime Minister at the conclusion of the Sibaya discussions in November last year, he declared poverty and other national challenges as national disasters. The king further instructed Dlamini and his government to address these issues with urgency, issuing a command for "nkwe" – a SiSwati idiom signifying urgency and swift action.

His Majesty highlighted Dlamini’s background in disaster management, referencing his role as Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of the National Disaster Management Agency (NDMA) from November 2015 until his appointment as PM. Prior to his time at the NDMA, Dlamini briefly served as Integrated Programmes Director at World Vision Rwanda between May 2011 and April 2014, having held earlier roles at World Vision International – Eswatini.

However, Dlamini had no political experience before assuming the office of Prime Minister. His educational background and perceived experience in the development sector initially sparked excitement and hope that the right man had been chosen for the job. His height and commanding physical presence were also seen by some as advantageous traits, though these features, as time has shown, have not translated into the kind of charisma needed for effective leadership in his case.

To understand the trajectory of Dlamini's nascent political life, one must start by acknowledging his complete lack of political experience. He has no background in student politics, youth or trade union movements, civil society, human rights advocacy, or even within the civil service.

This is an unadorned contrast to the leadership development seen in democracies, where political parties and other organizations play a key role in nurturing political leaders. In such systems, one’s growth is carefully tracked through years of party service, public engagement, and various leadership roles, ensuring they are well-prepared by the time they hold public office.

In Eswatini, however, the process is far less structured and haphazard. It is not uncommon for individuals to suddenly find themselves in top government positions, as was the case with Dlamini. One day, you wake up as Prime Minister, just as “Major V” found himself appointed as the king’s advisor, without any substantial political track record.

Unlike past Prime Ministers, such as Barnabas Sibusiso Dlamini, who rose through the ranks of the civil service, serving as Minister of Finance and Director at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) before becoming Prime Minister, Russell Dlamini's background lacks a similar path.

Other former PMs like Ambrose Mandvulo Dlamini, Absalom Themba (AT) Dlamini, and Cleopas Dlamini came from the private sector and at least had a deep understanding of business operations, earning them the backing of the business community. Dlamini, however, lacks this critical understanding of how the political and civil service spheres function. He was, in essence, thrown into the deep end with little preparation.

Dlamini has no discernible history of leadership, aside from his role as a pastor in his church—an influence that may explain his animated gestures and awkward movements when addressing an audience. He does not carry himself like a statesman. Some of his peers, who spoke to Swazi Bridge, struggled to remember him from their school days or during his time at the University of Eswatini, where he graduated with a BSc in Agricultural Education.

A former university colleague of Prime Minister Russell Dlamini, Bongani Masuku—who also served as Secretary General of the Students' Representative Council (SRC) at the University of Eswatini—shared his perspective, saying:

From what I observed, Russell is just a basic person. He lives for each day, nothing sophisticated, thoughtful, insightful, or futuristic in his articulations or views. He counts passing birds as just that, nothing about they are a ‘unit, marking a changing season and in search for greener pastures, etc.’”

Interestingly, Prime Minister Russell Dlamini seems not widely recognized within church circles as a pastor either. A prominent pastor, who spoke to The Bridge on condition of anonymity, revealed that he only became aware of Dlamini’s pastor role after his political appointment when comments began circulating.

Moreover, as Prime Minister, Russell Dlamini is seen as a "royal outsider." Unlike his predecessors—such as Prince Makhosini, Prince Mbilini, Ambrose Mandvulo Dlamini, and Absalom Themba (AT) Dlamini—who either had royal blood or close ties to senior members of the royal household, Dlamini lacks the same intimate proximity to the institution of the monarchy. This disconnect has hindered his ability to navigate the complex royal institution, which is crucial for effectively carrying out his duties.

One senior prince, speaking to Swazi Bridge, remarked:

"Former Prime Minister Barnabas may not have had royal blood, but he understood the system and could navigate it well. He often lobbied through the queen mother or senior princes when he needed to influence the king on certain matters. The current Prime Minister struggles with this because he seems out of touch. He doesn’t consult widely and doesn’t have the humility to learn. If he is to succeed, he needs help in understanding how to operate within this system."

In a nation steeped in tradition and royal influence, the selection of Eswatini's current Prime Minister marks a significant departure from the norm. Historically, the Prime Minister has emerged from the business elite, individuals who understood the intricate dance of power that defines the Tinkhundla system. However, this Prime Minister, an outsider to the royal circle and without a robust business backing, finds himself navigating treacherous political waters.

Dlamini seems to be over-compensating by overly praising the Tinkhundla system without understanding it beyond just being an electoral system. Tinkhundla is not merely a method of governance; it embodies a framework of royal authority and control. The Prime Minister seems to misunderstand this fundamental truth, viewing Tinkhundla solely as a political and electoral structure and therefore is unable to place himself within the "right faction" within the royal family seemingly intent on being an independent leader beholden to no one or faction but the King and Queen Mother. And therein lies his undoing for a Swazi politician!!

"His misapprehension leaves him grappling with the complexities of Swazi politics, where alliances and loyalties dictate who holds sway. In this context, he appears to be clutching at straws, struggling to assert his authority in an environment where he lacks both a personal constituency and the backing of powerful stakeholders," said a royal source close to the powers that be in an interview this week.

Prime Ministers need a strong royal backing or traceable lineage otherwise they remain vulnerable to the whirlwind of Swazi politics and the scheming and plotting by various factions within the royal family.

BUSINESS SUPPORT

The lack of support from the business community only worsens Russell Dlamini’s position. Historically, Eswatini’s business sector has had considerable influence in the appointment of Prime Ministers. Swazi Bridge has gathered that Barnabas Dlamini, for instance, enjoyed backing from billionaire businessman Nathan "Natie" Kirsh. Likewise, AT Dlamini, Ambrose Mandvulo Dlamini, and Cleopas Dlamini had the “blessing” and support of the business sector due to their corporate backgrounds. Dlamini, on the other hand, lacks this critical endorsement.

The business community views him as an outsider, and this is further complicated by his perceived close association with controversial businessman Kareem Ashraff. Historically, Ashraff has always been sidelined by traditional business circles in Eswatini. Ashraff is viewed as representing or leading the "Indian" faction of the business and capitalist class and constantly fights to exert influence in Swazi politics through proxies in political power. And, to many, he has the current Prime Minister by the balls hence the reluctance to act swiftly and decisively against all those involved in the drug shortage. 

In a capitalist society, and especially in eSwatini, a Prime Minister without business support is at a significant disadvantage, and Dlamini seems to be facing this reality. In the country, the capitalist class has three layers; indigenous/Swazi, white, and "Indian". All of them want to rule through political proxies and for a while the white capitalist class has been the dominant faction through "Natie" Kirsh, and of late Minister Neil, and other Prime Ministers of the past.

All these factions are, of course, not homogenous but share a common desire to influence the political establishment. For decades Kirsh was the de-facto leader of all three business interests and had considerable influence within the royal circles. But Kirsh is an old retired man living abroad now, with little connection to contemporary Swazi politics. This vacuum was, at least among the indigenous black Swazi elite, allegedly contested by the late businessman Victor Gamedze and Sthofeni Ginindza to name but just two.

Dlamini's ambitious policy statement, which aims for a 12 percent economic growth rate over the next five years, is widely dismissed by business leaders as unrealistic, even seen as a "big joke." Without their backing, his political survival seems increasingly uncertain. 

The Prime Minister's vulnerability is underscored by his lack of support from established business leaders, particularly from the historically dominant "white" business sector. This estrangement is particularly significant given the influence of Nathan "Natie" Kirsh, a billionaire whose economic clout has long shaped Eswatini's political landscape. Kirsh's backing has been pivotal in determining Prime Ministerial appointments and maintaining the monarchy's stronghold on power and "buying" global support in key powerful institutions and politicians in the world. No one who intends to significantly shift Swazi politics can hope to succeed without the support and backing of the now old Kirsh, or at least his close associates.

RUSSELL AND THE FOURTH ESTATE

Worsening his situation are the tensions with the fourth estate—which plays a crucial role in communications, reputation management, and national stability. Dlamini has found himself at odds with the media, starting with his suggestion to regulate it, followed by his direct attack on The Times of Eswatini during a recent session with the Editors' Forum. He is now widely perceived as being anti-media or to put it crudely, anti-accountability.

The press has adopted a notably cold stance towards him, forcing him to constantly justify his actions. At times the media has not been fair to the man, often projecting him as clueless and, to use the words of editor Bheki Makhubu, the worst the country has ever seen. This is objectively not true. However, the Prime Minister has not covered himself in glory in the way he hastily made a decision to terminate the breakfast meetings merely based on one 'irritating' episode. For a person of his standing, observers argue, he should have given himself time to reflect on the fall-out and then make an objective decision way after the tempers have calmed down.

"It does seem like the Prime Minister has a deep sense of inadequacy or low self-esteem. It's like someone dressed in borrowed robes who gets irritated at anyone who questions or criticizes him even if well-meaning. So this frustration with the media comes from a need for validation. He wants to be seen as equal to the task. To me he feels like a step-child who constantly has to be reminded he belongs to the family otherwise he will throw tantrums," a journalist who asked to remain anonymous told Swazi Bridge.

The reality is that every politician or government needs the media on their side. Can Russell succeed with his current strained relationship with the press? Only time will tell.

PARLIAMENT AND CABINET AS A NEW SITE OF POLITICAL CONTEST

Parliament, too, seems to be losing faith in Dlamini, and this week’s engagement with legislators only worsened the situation. A functional and cordial relationship between the executive and the legislature is essential for the smooth running of government. The executive must invest resources into fostering this relationship, as failure to do so can lead to chaos, with ordinary citizens and the nation ultimately bearing the brunt.

Once again, it remains to be seen whether Dlamini can succeed without the backing of Parliament.

A close observation of the body language within Russell Dlamini’s cabinet reveals a deeper issue: he lacks control over his ministers, and the centre is clearly not holding. A glaring example was Commerce Minister Mancoba Khumalo’s decision to suggest stopping the Prime Minister's session with the Editors’ Forum without consulting him. The fact that a subordinate could make such a move in full public view speaks volumes about the internal dynamics of the cabinet.

Further evidence of disarray was Finance Minister Neal Rijkenberg quietly leaving the same meeting when Dlamini began his unfounded accusations against The Times of Eswatini. These incidents point to an executive struggling to maintain cohesion. In fact, it is difficult not to conclude that the Prime Minister is being undermined by his own subordinates or there are festering unresolved issues that predate his time in politics.

A cabinet source confided to Swazi Bridge that Khumalo, Rijkenberg, and ICT Minister Savannah Maziya have become major headaches for the Prime Minister. Despite this, Dlamini is unable to remove them, as they were all appointed by the King. In contrast, the few ministers Dlamini did appoint—such as those in Agriculture, Sports, and Housing—remain loyal to him, but this has done little to strengthen his overall grip on the cabinet.

"There is a view that while still at NDMA Neil and some within the cabinet used to undermine his organization and refused the financial back-up necessary and by the time the Prime Minister ascended the throne there was already bad blood between him and the Neil's of this world," said a source familiar with the subject. 

The subjective factors contributing to Dlamini’s struggles stem largely from his personal traits. At a personal level, Prime Minister Dlamini appears to lack emotional stability and demonstrates questionable emotional intelligence. This is evident in his handling of the Bheki Makhubu issue, the Auditor General incident, and his recent confrontations in Parliament.

One key strength of his predecessors—Barnabas, AT, and Mandvulo—was their ability to remain calm and composed under pressure, projecting statesmanship. In contrast, Dlamini’s church background, which influences his animated gestures and sermon-like delivery, seems ill-suited for political leadership, as seen during his address at the Editors’ Forum where he moved away from the podium and paced around the stage, more like a pastor than a statesman.

Furthermore, Dlamini’s lack of oratory skills compounds his challenges. In politics, being a compelling speaker is critical, but he often comes across as either too emotional or fails to deliver a strong, convincing message. This weakness undermines his ability to inspire confidence and effectively lead.

All of these issues are unfolding against the backdrop of a struggling economy. The health sector in this country is in dire straits, with people dying from preventable diseases, as recently highlighted by the unavailability of dialysis and surgical services at the Mbabane Government Hospital.

The University of Eswatini remains closed due to the lack of living allowances for students, compounded by a water crisis, a shortage of teachers, and inadequate facilities in schools. Poverty levels are rising, and unemployment, particularly among the youth, continues to surge.

According to a World Bank report, Eswatini’s unemployment rate stands at over 33.3 percent with more than 50 percent of the population living below the poverty line. The country also faces high and persistent inequality, with a Gini index of 54.6 percent—one of the highest in the world. Youth unemployment is especially alarming, with those between the ages of 15 and 24 experiencing a staggering unemployment rate of 59.1 percent.

The pressing question that begs for an answer is: will Russell Dlamini survive this moment? Will he endure long enough to have another chapter in Eswatini’s politics and meaningfully address the socio-economic challenges facing the country? Or will the mounting pressure overwhelm him before he has the chance to truly focus on the nation’s development needs? With each passing day, it appears that he has lost his grip on the political pulse.

From the United States to Lesotho, Rwanda, and now with another trip planned in the coming week, all within a month—could these frequent travels be a sign that Dlamini is being deliberately distanced from the domestic front while the Deputy Prime Minister, Thuli Dladla, takes charge of a smoother-running cabinet? Is this the beginning of the end for Dlamini, or merely another phase he will endure? Only time will tell.

CONCLUSION

In a nation steeped in tradition and royal influence, the selection of Eswatini's current Prime Minister marks a significant departure from the norm. Historically, the Prime Minister has emerged from the business elite, individuals who understood the intricate dance of power that defines the Tinkhundla system. However, this Prime Minister, an outsider to the royal circle and without a robust business backing, finds himself navigating treacherous political waters.

In this intricate web of alliances and rivalries, the Prime Minister stands at a precarious crossroads. Without a strong support system or a clear understanding of the underlying dynamics of Swazi politics, he risks being sidelined. As small-time players take initiative in governance, his authority diminishes further, emphasizing the need for a strategic recalibration.

As he navigates these turbulent waters, the Prime Minister must recognize that the essence of power in Eswatini transcends formal titles and positions. It is about understanding the interplay of loyalty, influence, and historical context. Only by grasping these subtleties can he hope to rise above the challenges that define his tenure and gain a foothold in a system designed to maintain royal supremacy.

He also needs to understand that to be a Prime Minister in the country is to be a royal errand boy and to understand that it is about pleasing the principals at Ludzidzini first. Those who seek to undermine him know that they need to win Ludzidzini and then he will become a lame duck unable to wield any power within cabinet or parliament. Once the vultures see that the PM has lost power at Ludzidzini nalokungenadvonsi bese kuyasutela nje.